My new blogs

Hi all,

I may start two new blogs on Tumblr platform:

Insights on Investment
and
Insights on Innovation

I like its ease of posting (through my smartphone) and its function as something between a blog and a twitter-like microblog.

Stay tune.

Post on some outsourcing websites is on my another blog

Some friends just mentioned that they can't find my post on outsourcing websites that I mentioned to them.

It is on my another blog.

It's here.

Bankers, investors, researchers who have tasks that you wish to outsource may try the websites. You may get a glimpse of varieties of tasks being outsourced.

It's amazing.

Whack a Banker arcade and game

I saw this article: 'Whack A Banker' game proving a hit in Britain in Yahoo! News and decided to do a search.

Found it ! It can be found in Tim Hunkin’s (the inventor's) website.

Read its "making of the machine". It is both hilarious and saddening.

Highlights:
"Two weeks later:
The good news is that the 'boring' facade doesn't seem to put people off. The bad news is that none of my hammers are lasting. People carry on using them after they've disintegrated, hitting the bankers with the central steel rod so the heads are now really battered. I'm trying the expensive stitched cloth hammer I bought to see what happens next.
…..
4 days later still:
The £56 hammer I bought has now split. I knew people didn't like bankers, but I had no idea they disliked them quite so much. People were able to whack much more violently because the hammer was heavier and has a longer leash than my foam ones."

(You can see the picture of hammers in the link.)

I wonder whether these free Whack A Banker games below are as popular :-)
game link 1
game link 2

Dubai World crisis – a look at CDS market

I don’t have access to CDS detailed pricing data. However, I can take a glimpse of market data from Markit and CMA. We can only see the "minimal" but let’s explore to see what we can get.

Just saw the "Agreement" in the website: not supposed to reproduce data etc.., so I just point to the direction to get data.

CMA data page

We can look at movers, there are:

• largest widening spread: greatest credit deterioration;
• largest tightening spread: greatest credit improvement.

We can look at the 5-year mid bps, see whether it is large in magnitude. If it is large, then the CDS market views it as high risk of default. There is also change from close bps and %.

BPS is basis point, a unit relating to interest rates that is equal to 1/100th of a percentage point per annum.

Take a look at Sovereign Risk Monitor - Highest Default Probabilities.
There are sovereign tighteners and wideners.

Tightener means less risk compared to previous close.
Widener means more risk compared to previous close.

CPD is Cumulative Probability of Default. Large bps will have large CPD, high risk of default.

This Sovereign Risk Monitor is useful, at least we get to know what are the countries the CDS market participants think as having high risk of default.

Markit data page
Explore the page…

On CDS market summary, the data are in indices form, North America, Europe, Asia, Sovereigns, Volatility. Take a look at Sovereign - Markit iTraxx SovX CEEMEA. If magnitude of spread is high, the market is considering it as risky.

Meaning of these indices can be seen from files available in Markit CDS Documentation & Education, for e.g. we can find out that Markit iTraxx SovX CEEMEA is index for Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa Sovereign.

Markit Eurex settlements and Markit ICE settlements CDS clearing prices are available.
We can also find Last Quote for the Most Liquid CDS here.

Some other insightful materials are:
CDS calendar;
Credit Event details (we can see from the PDF file their bids and offers, size etc.. in credit event auction);
Announcements;
Useful CDS links (can learn about CDS here);
Markit CDS converter (useful for CDS investors) (but I still don’t know how to use it).

In the Credit Event details PDF file, they put it as "bond", with "coupon", "maturity".

I don’t like this practice. A CDS, credit default swap is derivative, just because it is made bond-like, with coupon, maturity, doesn’t make it a bond. Think of the consequences of Lehman Brother’s Minibond made peoples think it is a bond.

I end this post with a link to Markit Credit Research report dated 27 Nov 2009 for your view:
Dubai contagion overdone ?

There is a graph showing effects on Middle East CDS price.