Investment Guru: Bill Gross

Bill Gross is PIMCO’s Managing Director.
He is an investment guru of fixed income/bond.
He is writing the monthly "Investment Outlook" article which can be read from PIMCO’s website.
His "Investment Outlook" articles are not only informational, they are very insightful.
website

Books by him:
1. Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong!
2. Bill Gross on Investing
(but I don’t have these two books yet)
a book on him:
1. the bond king: investment secrets from PIMCO’s Bill Gross

Some examples of great insights I got from his "Investment Outlook":
November 08 article on "nuclear-like global financial system".
June 08 article on "authenticity of US inflation data".
Mar 07 article on "asset carry path" (10 little assets, much like Agatha Christie’s Ten Little Indians)

I also learnt from the "Investment Outlook" terms such as shadow banking system, deleverage etc..

US: Obama-Biden plan (1)

Obama-Biden plan from Change.gov (the Office of the President – Elect)
Obama-Biden plan link
However, whether it will exactly be the same may depend on how the crisis will further proceed.
It is better to get to this direct source for information on Obama-Biden plan.

But some questions remain:
How will it be modified ?
Will it be successful in lifting US from financial turmoil ?

Excerpt from the initial Obama-Biden plan:
(for details of Obama-Biden plan, refer to the website; updates may be available from its Newsroom)

plan to revitalize the economy
1. Immediate Action to Create Good Jobs in America

• A New American Jobs Tax Credit
  ($3,000 refundable tax credit for each additional full-time employee hired)
• Raise the small business investment expensing limit to $250,000 through the end of 2009
• Zero capital gains rate for investment in small businesses
• Save one million jobs through immediate investments to rebuild America's roads and bridges and repair our schools
  ($25 billion immediately available in a Jobs and Growth Fund)
• Partner with America's automakers to help save jobs and ensure that the next generation of clean vehicles is built in the United States
  ($50 billion in loan guarantees)
  

2. Immediate Relief for Struggling Families

• A tax cut for 95 percent of workers and their families -- plus seniors
  permanent tax cut of $500 for workers and $1,000 for families
  extend these expedited tax credits to senior citizens who are retired as a down payment on his plan to eliminate taxes for all seniors making up to $50,000.
• Extend unemployment insurance benefits and temporarily suspend taxes on these benefits
• Penalty-free hardship withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s in 2008 and 2009
  allow withdrawals of 15% up to $10,000 from retirement accounts without penalty (although subject to the normal taxes)
• Instruct the Treasury to allow seniors to delay required withdrawals from 401(k)s and IRAs
• Funds to counteract high heating costs this winter
  

3. Direct, Immediate Assistance for Homeowners, Not a Bailout for Irresponsible Mortgage Lenders

• Instruct the Secretaries of the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to use their existing authority to more aggressively modify the terms of mortgages
  HOPE for Homeowners Act
• Reform the bankruptcy code to assist homeowners and remove legal impediments to encouraging broader mortgage restructuring
• Enact a 90-day foreclosure moratorium for homeowners who are acting in good faith
• Provide $25 Billion in state fiscal relief to help avoid painful property tax increases
• Create a universal mortgage tax credit for homeowners
  10 percent refundable tax credit on the mortgage interest paid by hardworking American families who do not itemize their taxes
  

4. A Rapid, Aggressive Response to Our Financial Crisis, Using All the Tools We Have

• Be prepared, if necessary, for broader assurances for credit to banks
• Extend asset purchases to unfreeze other critical sectors
• Make credit available to small businesses and state or local governments
• Address the credit crisis facing our states and localities
• Address the credit crisis facing our small businesses
  two immediate steps:
  (1) a nationwide emergency lending facility for small businesses that could be run through the SBA's Disaster Loan Program, which helped thousands of businesses in the wake of 9/11;
  (2) temporarily eliminating fees on the SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan guarantee programs for small businesses, to help increase private lending for small businesses.

China 2008 additional investment plan

We can get a glimpse of which industry the investment will flow to from government’s stimulus package. If the amount is very big, it will give some breathing spaces or even a boost for the industry’s participants.

Wonder whether there is an online compilations of various countries’ stimulus packages in details.

Below is China 2008 additional investment plan:
今年新增1000亿元中央投资计划
link to China 2008 additional investment plan

Excerpts:
一是廉租住房建设、棚户区改造等保障性住房建设100亿元。

二是农村沼气、饮水、通路、通电、通邮工程、重大水利工程等农村民生工程和农村基础设施建设340亿元。

三是铁路、公路和机场等重大基础设施建设250亿元。

四是基层卫生、计划生育服务体系、中西部农村初中校舍改造等医疗卫生、教育、文化社会事业发展130亿元。

五是城镇污水、垃圾处理设施建设、重点流域水污染防治等节能减排和生态建设工程120亿元。

六是自主创新和产业结构调整项目60亿元。

summary:
low cost housing: 100亿元
village infrastructure: 340亿元
railways, roads, airports: 250亿元
health, education, culture: 130亿元
cities sewerage, waste treatment, pollution prevention, conservation project etc. : 120亿元
innovation, industry structural change: 60亿元
Total: 1000亿元

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)
website
OPEC website is a great resource for oil-related industry.

I find its publications below very useful:
World oil outlook (annual):
This is a great industry analysis report. It started of with main assumptions.
Oil supply and demand outlook is analysed.
The report also covers oil downstream industry.

OPEC is using OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM) and World Oil Refining Logistic Demand (WORLD) model to analyse the energy industry and oil downstream industry.
The portion "major data source" tells where to get your information if you want to do your own research.
I prefer industry analysis that comes with assumptions, models used and data source/reference.

monthly oil market report (monthly)
Publishing schedule of monthly oil market report is available.

The report highlights many important components related to oil industry:
crude oil price, oil futures, commodity markets, world economy, world oil demand/supply, product markets and refinery, tanker market, oil trade, stock movements etc.

In the future, if we wish to analyse on oil industry, at least these components need to be analysed. The "world economy" portion is also useful for economic analysis, in the point of view of oil industry people.

OPEC bulletin
This OPEC bulletin has write-up on the industry.

The latest of these publications available on date of this post:
World Oil Outlook 2008
link
December monthly oil market report
link
OPEC bulletin (Nov-Dec 2008)
link

Other information that I find useful:
OPEC upstream investment
OPEC downstream capacity
OPEC oil reserves
It is like a "pipeline" – from oil reserves, upstream, then downstream, then to customer.