Economist: School of thoughts – Austrian School

A forum friend has mentioned a website which I think is a great repository of Austrian School of Economics’ ideas and literatures.

Ludwig von Mises Institute
website

Some of the literatures (in PDF files) can give a glimpse of who are the Austrian School economists and their ideas.

Recommended these few PDF files for a start:
15 great Austrian Economists
PDF file
Method, Process and Austrian Economics
PDF file
New Directions in Austrian Economics
PDF file

Its daily articles are also good read, giving insights on other ways looking at same things.

Red flags in Bernard Madoff’s fund


Found 2 articles (see below) on red flags in Bernard Madoff’s fund.
We can get a glimpse of which portion of due diligence can uncover the red flags in Madoff’s case.

Some insights:
1. whether volatility, returns are tally with investment strategy claimed; backtesting using investment strategy and compare

2. "literature" study: whether others have due diligence check and result; news of feeder fund’s shutdown

3. trading records, regulatory filings to compare with trading (volume) claimed

4. corporate governance : comptroller, auditor of firm, feeder funds; independence of comptroller/auditor/compliance officer etc.

Article: The Red Flags In the Madoff Fund's Past (from CNBC)
link to CNBC's article
Who: Aksia, a firm that does due diligence on investment advisers
What: investigation for client
When: Apr 08

Red flags:
excerpt:
[1. The Madoff investment strategy, called "split-strike conversion," is known to be very volatile; it involves trading huge positions around options expirations. Despite that volatility, its returns over the past decade were an amazingly stable 8-10 percent.

2. Aksia discovered a 2005 letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission from a financial advisor who supposedly studied Madoff's operations. That letter asserted Madoff was running a Ponzi scheme. There was also a Wall Street Journal story at the time about one of the Madoff's associated "feeder funds" getting shut down in 1992.

3. Madoff's strategy was bizarre: He said he would move $13 billion in various trades at once, yet Aksia couldn't find traders who saw his trades. There were also no regulatory filings. And family members were running the firm.

4. The comptroller of the firm was based in Bermuda. Most mainstream hedge fund investment advisers have their comptroller in-house. Madoff's so-called feeder funds, meanwhile, were audited by respectable auditors. That gave the impression that Madoff had a professional operation. But the central investment action wasn't with the feeder funds, but in Madoff's New York City headquarters. And those activities were audited by a smaller, lesser known firm.

5. Madoff sent out accounting statements by mail. Most hedge funds email statements and allowed them to be downloaded via computer for easier analysis by investors.]
(but I haven’t figured out what’s wrong with this)

Advice:
[….warned clients not to do business with Bernard Madoff's investment fund.]


Article: European banks tally losses linked to Madoff (from International Herald Tribune)
link to IHT's article
Who: Société Générale
What: routine due diligence audit
When: early 2003

Some findings:
[…strategy consisted of balancing holdings in large Standard & Poor's funds with options to buy and sell shares, known as puts and calls;….. when Société Générale back-tested the strategy, it could not match the results that Madoff claimed to have produced.
…troubled by the fact that Peter Madoff, Madoff's brother, was the chief compliance officer.]

Advice:
[…..Société Générale immediately put Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities on its internal blacklist, forbidding its investment bank from doing business with him, and also strongly discouraging wealthy clients at its private bank from his investments]

Investment Guru: Bill Gross

Bill Gross is PIMCO’s Managing Director.
He is an investment guru of fixed income/bond.
He is writing the monthly "Investment Outlook" article which can be read from PIMCO’s website.
His "Investment Outlook" articles are not only informational, they are very insightful.
website

Books by him:
1. Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong!
2. Bill Gross on Investing
(but I don’t have these two books yet)
a book on him:
1. the bond king: investment secrets from PIMCO’s Bill Gross

Some examples of great insights I got from his "Investment Outlook":
November 08 article on "nuclear-like global financial system".
June 08 article on "authenticity of US inflation data".
Mar 07 article on "asset carry path" (10 little assets, much like Agatha Christie’s Ten Little Indians)

I also learnt from the "Investment Outlook" terms such as shadow banking system, deleverage etc..

US: Obama-Biden plan (1)

Obama-Biden plan from Change.gov (the Office of the President – Elect)
Obama-Biden plan link
However, whether it will exactly be the same may depend on how the crisis will further proceed.
It is better to get to this direct source for information on Obama-Biden plan.

But some questions remain:
How will it be modified ?
Will it be successful in lifting US from financial turmoil ?

Excerpt from the initial Obama-Biden plan:
(for details of Obama-Biden plan, refer to the website; updates may be available from its Newsroom)

plan to revitalize the economy
1. Immediate Action to Create Good Jobs in America

  • A New American Jobs Tax Credit
    ($3,000 refundable tax credit for each additional full-time employee hired)
  • Raise the small business investment expensing limit to $250,000 through the end of 2009
  • Zero capital gains rate for investment in small businesses
  • Save one million jobs through immediate investments to rebuild America's roads and bridges and repair our schools
    ($25 billion immediately available in a Jobs and Growth Fund)
  • Partner with America's automakers to help save jobs and ensure that the next generation of clean vehicles is built in the United States
    ($50 billion in loan guarantees)

2. Immediate Relief for Struggling Families

  • A tax cut for 95 percent of workers and their families -- plus seniors
    permanent tax cut of $500 for workers and $1,000 for families
    extend these expedited tax credits to senior citizens who are retired as a down payment on his plan to eliminate taxes for all seniors making up to $50,000.
  • Extend unemployment insurance benefits and temporarily suspend taxes on these benefits
  • Penalty-free hardship withdrawals from IRAs and 401(k)s in 2008 and 2009
    allow withdrawals of 15% up to $10,000 from retirement accounts without penalty (although subject to the normal taxes)
  • Instruct the Treasury to allow seniors to delay required withdrawals from 401(k)s and IRAs
  • Funds to counteract high heating costs this winter

3. Direct, Immediate Assistance for Homeowners, Not a Bailout for Irresponsible Mortgage Lenders

  • Instruct the Secretaries of the Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to use their existing authority to more aggressively modify the terms of mortgages
    HOPE for Homeowners Act
  • Reform the bankruptcy code to assist homeowners and remove legal impediments to encouraging broader mortgage restructuring
  • Enact a 90-day foreclosure moratorium for homeowners who are acting in good faith
  • Provide $25 Billion in state fiscal relief to help avoid painful property tax increases
  • Create a universal mortgage tax credit for homeowners
    10 percent refundable tax credit on the mortgage interest paid by hardworking American families who do not itemize their taxes

4. A Rapid, Aggressive Response to Our Financial Crisis, Using All the Tools We Have

  • Be prepared, if necessary, for broader assurances for credit to banks
  • Extend asset purchases to unfreeze other critical sectors
  • Make credit available to small businesses and state or local governments
  • Address the credit crisis facing our states and localities
  • Address the credit crisis facing our small businesses
    two immediate steps:
    (1) a nationwide emergency lending facility for small businesses that could be run through the SBA's Disaster Loan Program, which helped thousands of businesses in the wake of 9/11;
    (2) temporarily eliminating fees on the SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan guarantee programs for small businesses, to help increase private lending for small businesses.
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Disclaimer

Disclaimer:
The opinion post on this blog is personal and is not an inducement to buy or sell any investment products. The author of this blog will NOT be held responsible for any losses incurred due to the reliance on any content of this blog for investment decisions.