Crowdsourcing on knowledge, example : best source of business / investment news in a country


(This is the elaboration on Mahalo Answers that I mentioned in the comment of this post.)

For foreign investors, one of the major drawbacks is :

  • the investors are not familiar with where and how to get updated local news related to business/investment aspect of that country. He may be disadvantaged on information aspect.

It will be good if I can find these insights/resources from Mahalo Answers’s community. Hopefully there are locals that can point me to relevant information sources.

So I ask this questions in Mahalo Answers:
  • What is the best source (in English) of business / investment news in:
    Middle East, Australia, India, France, Germany, UK, Brazil, Russia…etc...(respectively) ?

Some of the questions are not answered, some yielded great, insightful answers, for examples:
India, UK, Australia.

The most insightful answer comes when I ask on Middle East.
This answerer saves me the need to ask similar question again, country-by-country.
A great "thank you" to him/her.

His/her answer is on EINnews.
Take a look at EINnews.

It provides access to breaking news, organized within 300+ countries (classified under Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Russia & CIS, Latin America, Africa, North America), regional, US states and specialised topics (in categories of industry, business & economy, government & politics, miscellaneous).

Wow, that’s amazing !

Mahalo Answers is also a venue to seek valuable local opinions/surveys.
Some examples that I have asked:

  • "For Mahaloians in US, have you observed "green shoots’ in US economy, in real life ?"
  • "For Mahaloians in US, will option ARM reset incur a big financial burden to your family ?"

I have also learnt a lot from others’ Questions. This widens my horizon.

Mahalo Answers has widgets that can be put on blog, showing Answers by me to others’ Questions. I have removed the "Mahalo Answers Widget" from this blog since this blog is already too cluttered. However, I still put up the widget on my Innovation For the Future blog.
You may check it out.

Gold price time series (dated back to 1950s)


Gold price time series is available in Deutsche Bundesbank website, yearly average, monthly average and daily rates.

Data on website

We can find:

  • Price of gold in London, morning fixing and afternoon fixing, USD;
  • Price of gold, Frankfurt Stock Exchange fixing, DM;
  • Price of gold, Dresdner Bank AG fixing, Euro.

These time series are amazing, with monthly average of price of gold in London, morning fixing dated back to 1950 !

US Public Debt and Statutory Debt Limit

  • How much is current US Public Debt ?
  • Is the US Public Debt near the Statutory Debt Limit ? How near ?
  • Where can we find updated information on these ?

Daily Treasury statement
http://www.fms.treas.gov/dts/

Example:
Nov. 17, 2009 Daily Treasury statement

Go to "Table III C – Debt Subject to Limit", look at the "Closing balance today", at items "Total Public Debt Subject to Limit" and "Statutory Debt Limit".

On Nov. 17, 2009:
Total Public Debt Subject to Limit is $11,982,556 billions (11.982556 trillions).
Statutory Debt Limit is $12,104,000 billions (12.104000 trillions).

The Statutory limits on Federal Debt are changed many many times.
We can see the changes from this file (This file is from White House’s website.):
Statutory limits on Federal Debt: 1940 – current

Amazing !
In 1940, statutory limit for Federal Debt is 49 billions.
Sep 29, 2007, it is 9,815 billions.
Feb 17, 2009, it is 12,104 billions.

Saudi drops WTI oil contract, use Argus Sour Crude Index instead.

From this FT article: "Saudi drops WTI oil contract", Saudi Arabia will use Argus Sour Crude Index instead.

What is this Argus Sour Crude Index ?
I did a search on Argus Media which created the index.
Found this PDF file: Argus Sour Crude Index.

We can see the methodology and specifications from this file (details and examples of calculations are illustrated).

This Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI) calculation method has some interesting features..

Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI): daily volume-weighted average of aggregate deals of components grades: Mars, Poseidon, Southern Green Canyon (SGC).
It claims to be "a pricing tool designed to serve primarily buyers and sellers of imported crude that need a broader index of US Gulf coast medium sour crude value for use in long-term contracts".

Argus Sour Crude Index Price = Argus Sour Crude Index Differential + same month WTI Formula Basis

WTI Formula Basis: pricing series by combining Nymex futures (before expiry) and WTI spot prices (after expiry), to represent mean of WTI Cushing spot assessment for 3 business days after expiry which precede pipeline scheduling.

This "normal" calculation method (daily volume-weighted average of aggregate deals of Mars, Poseidon, SGC) is to be used if combined volumes of all 3 grades reach "volume minimum" (6000 barrels per calendar day).

If volume minimum is not reached, then "Proportional Assessment" is to be used.

Proportional Assessment:
Beginning of every trade quarter, Argus will average volume of trade in each of last six trade months and assign each grade a % of traded volume (for example 71% Mars, 22% Poseidon, 7% SGC).
ASCI will be constructed using individual volume-weighted average prices for Mars, Poseidon and SGC using the % (for example 71% Mars, 22% Poseidon, 7% SGC).

To address difficulties associated with "stream disruptions" (output from pipeline ceases, market for that grade becomes illiquid), there is this "Intelligent Assessment".

Intelligent Assessment
If stream disruptions happen (1 grade becomes illiquid), Argus will assesses and decides whether to suspend daily price or continue with Intelligent Assessment.
If trade in remaining 2 grades > volume minimum, index will be calculated from the remaining 2 grades. If remaining 2 grades < volume minimum, then the "proportional assessment" will be applied in the same proportion, using Argus published prices for the grades (actual trade or intelligent assessment). If all streams are very disrupted until integrity of index damaged, Argus will consult with industry to form an alternative index (other sour grades, import values, intelligent assessments).

My summary:
1. ASCI uses both futures and spot price to try to arrive at a better price representation.
2. ASCI uses past volume% to calculate index if current trade volume is low (i.e. illiquid; demand low, supply intact).
3. ASCI calculation takes away grade with stream disrupted (i.e.: illiquid; demand intact, supply disrupted).
4. ASCI is still using WTI, Nymex to arrive at its data. It is still dollar-denominated.
5. ASCI is volume-weighted; uses deal volume when market is normal, uses past volumes when overall market is "illiquid" (volume low). Volume weighted "price" may be more representative than, say, closing price.

Basically, it’s trying to have a better price representation (against fluctuations, manipulations, distortions etc)... We can also guess this from its claim: "a pricing tool designed to serve primarily buyers and sellers of imported crude that need a broader index of US Gulf coast medium sour crude value for use in long-term contracts".
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Disclaimer

Disclaimer:
The opinion post on this blog is personal and is not an inducement to buy or sell any investment products. The author of this blog will NOT be held responsible for any losses incurred due to the reliance on any content of this blog for investment decisions.